YEREVAN–In a recent interview with Panorama.am, French writer, geopolitical analyst, and founder of IntStrat.org, Adrien Gévaudan spoke about his recently published article, “Geopolitics of the Greater Caucasus and Nagorno-Karabakh,” in which he argues that peace is the only solution that can guarantee long sought-after stability in the region.
Gévaudan says that the balance of power between the two states is of utmost importance in determining whether violence will erupt. He cautions that if one side tips the balance in power, there could be consequences.
“If the power balance changes too much and too quickly, it is only a matter of time before one side decides to take advantage of its weaker adversary; strategically speaking, it is only logical,” says Gévaudan. The risks are even higher, he says, if one considers the contributions of surrounding geopolitical players such as Iran, Russia, and Israel in making the conflict a powder keg.
It is important, Gévaudan says, to strike a peace deal now, before the balance of power shifts any further. “That is why the international recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is, in my opinion, the only solution to ensure the stability of the region,” Gévaudan says.
“An entity can be recognized as an independent state when it meets the Montevideo criteria of 1933,” Gévaudan says. Those include, “One, a stable territory; two, a permanent population; three, political authority; and four, the capacity to build relations with other states.”
Let’s just say the NKR has the first three and the problem resides with the last one,” Gévaudan says. “But in order to build relations with other states you have to be recognized by them, which is quite a paradox.”
Gévaudan says that international powers have to “moral” interest in the conflict, but only what plays to their state interests. In that light, he says, Karabakh must play to the interests of strong players involved.
As for how Karabakh can position itself to fall in line with big power interests, Gévaudan says, “As a matter of fact, such interest already exists, given all the problems an open conflict would create if it were to explode in the South Caucasus.”
“This is of special concern for the EU; and this is why I think the EU should do more to promote the international recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic,” Gévaudan says. “Nobody wants a new war right now, not even the Azerbaijanis; we should, we must take advantage of this while the consensus on peace still exists.”