We’re Screwed Again

Garen Yegparian

BY GAREN YEGPARIAN

You probably read that the United States Geological Survey has come out with a report that says there might be a million barrels of oil and 6 billion cubic feet of natural gas recoverable from the innards of the current Republic of Armenia.

This report has been pending for a while. But let’s be clear. The USGS found four possible sources of hydrocarbons, but didn’t even evaluate three of them because the chances that anything might ACTUALLY be found were very low. Even the reported oil and gas has only a 10% chance of existing.

You might be wondering how this is possible. Realize that this report is not based on even a single test-well being drilled. It simply studied the geology of the area and based on what was there, projected the possibility that oil and natural gas might exist.

And, if this rings vague bells, as though you’ve heard something like this before, it could be because the study was based on data from a 1974 publication in Russian. Someone else might have made similar guesses in the past.

Why, you’re probably wondering, is this news another example of being screwed? Think of it. Given the corruption in the Republic of Armenia (RoA), all it will take is for some connected crook to get the notion that there’s oil/gas underground, and somehow get the money to start looking for it. This could well destroy underground water and above-ground agricultural resources because the area in which these hydrocarbons are thought to lie under is… you guessed it, the Ararat plain, Armenia’s agricultural heart!

As if this isn’t enough, news came out the same day that the U.S. State Department had cleared a $320-million medium-range air-to-air missile sale to Turkey. This is happening, it is explained by those in power, in the context of increasing security risks in the region, and, of course, the NATO alliance. We’re also told this won’t alter the basic military balance in the region. These two points seem contradictory. If the balance isn’t altered in Turkey’s favor, what’s the point of selling them the equipment?

We’re also told that these will help Turkey defend its extensive coastline and borders. I’m really curious as to what airborne threat could possibly assail Turkey. Would it come (in alphabetical order) from Armenia? Black Sea (maybe flight capable monsters inhabit these waters…)? Bulgaria? Greece? Iran? Iraq? Kurdistan? Syria? Each of these is more preposterous a proposition than the rest! It’s not at all possible that Turkey might use these weapons against the RoA and Artsakh should Azerbaijan’s bellicosity lead to another shooting war on that front, right?

It turns out that this sale could have been prevented if a hold had been put on it within two weeks by a U.S. senator. It didn’t happen. Why? Could it be that our elected Senators have a guilty conscience, knowing that one or more U.S. government agencies may have been quietly supporting Turkey’s indiscriminate support of anti-Syrian-regime rebels?

Write to your Senators and ask for an explanation about this foolhardy sale to an ever more regionally destabilizing country, Turkey.

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4 Comments

  1. Gassia Deuvletian said:

    And we never learn…stop wasting your time and effort in convincing Americans or anybody….concentrate on strengthening your motherland…..you continue like this we will bes screwed over and over again((

  2. Hratch said:

    Flawed analysis again.

    First of all, no investor is going to invest into something just because a corrupt official is waives a flawed 1973 report. Contrary to liberal beliefs, and unlike their public counterparts, private investors tend to make decisions that actually benefit them . Not some distant pie in the sky fantasy spent with public funds.

    Secondly, you can thank Czar Putin for the weapon sales to Turkey. It’s only natural to counter the recent swiping of the Crimea, causing havoc in eastern Ukraine, selling 4 billions dollars worth of sophisticated weapons to Azerbaijan and reminding the world not to mess around with a ‘nuclear Russia’ !

    When we don’t address the big bad bear in the room, we’re just not going to be taken seriously. No Senator is going to listen to our ‘Why’s’ if we choose to be selectively blind to the obvious. The truth is that Mother Russia is persona non grata in the west right now. If we continue to choose to side with her, we better start work on creating some more fantastic tales to justify Mother Russia and her actions.

  3. messanger said:

    I mentioned it in the your one of the previous writings about oil. Some parameters show there maybe oil in the ground. But in those places of Armenia there is no Wild cats (first exploratory wells). This means There is no SOLID evidence. and no one invest in such situations. and Fracking oil reservoir is the hardest way to produce (Shale oil that you mention) So people need to be realistic. Armenia must make some sort of wild cat drillings. After this, if therre can be producebla oil, companies invest. and Do not think in such a way that Azerbaijan has oil and we are close them so we should have too. This is compltely wrong. Northen Iraq has billion barrels of oil. but Turkey has limited .

  4. edward demian said:

    The decapitation of two Americans by ISIS has done more for us than all the lip flapping in the last 100 years. Go ISIS go. Pretty soon we’ll be bombing Turkey.

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