YEREVAN (Public Radio of Armenia)—The population of Armenia will plunge to 1.8 million by 2100, according to projections made by the 2015 Revision of World Population Prospects of the United Nations.
Assistant representative of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) to Armenia, Garik Hayrapetyan, and demographer Ruben Yeganyan, shared their insights on the results of this latest UN report.
“Actually, projections are made by optimistic, medium variant, and pessimistic scenarios. In 2100 Armenia will have [a population of] 1.8 million. The pessimistic variant projection states the population will decrease to less than one million in 2100,” Hayrapetyan said at a press conference.
The world’s population is projected to reach 11.2 billion from its current 7.3 billion by 2100. Asia will see a likely reduction of its total population size. Europe will suffer a decrease, with 646 million people by 2100. The fastest-growing region is Africa, where population is projected to reach 4.4 billion.
Population growth in Turkey and Iran will remain high, but they will also see a decrease.
“A major concern for Armenia is the number of workers per retiree. Currently the ratio in the country is 5.4 workers per retiree, whereas the medium variant projection [says] the number will be 2.4 per one retiree in 2100, and the pessimistic projection sets the one per one variant. It will evolve into a huge social-economic burden for workers, and put an end to the principle of generations’ solidarity,” Hayrapetyan said.
With respect to the sex ratio in Armenia, Hayrapetyan said, “Now the sex ratio is 86 males to 100 females but this covers the whole population of Armenia. Meanwhile, among 0-19 olds, males exceed females by 11.4,” Hayrapetyan said.
Ruben Yeganyan said migration was the main factor used in determining these rates. “Now, 30,000 people emigrate from Armenia annually.” Armenia’s population is expected to decrease by 12,000 each year.
Yeganyan added, however, that the UN projection could turn out to be wrong. But the projections, he says, are not unexpected. Yeganyan believes the country should work to address the issue by developing mechanisms to influence the situation, so that the projection does not come true.