Azerbaijan Faces Highest Risks of Mass Atrocities in South Caucasus


Azerbaijan-riskAmong the countries of the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan faces the highest risk of potential mass atrocities in 2015, according to a map and ranking of Global Risk Assessments compiled by the Early Warning Project.

According to 2015 data, there is a 0.5% statistical risk of mass atrocities in Azerbaijan. The country ranks 74 out of 162.

The Statistical Risk Assessment is produced by averaging the forecasts from three models – Bad Regime (the characteristics of a country’s national politics that hint at a potential for a regime to commit mass atrocities, especially in the context of political instability), Elite Threat (the potential threats to a regime’s hold on power that might spur it to lash out against those threats in the form of a mass killing), and Random Forests (a machine-learning algorithm the project experts apply to all of the factors identified by the other two).

As of Bad Regime, Azerbaijan runs 0.8% risks, Elite Threat – 0.5%, Random Forests – 0.2%.

According to the Early Warning Project experts’ assessment, Armenia and neighboring Georgia face equal risks – 0.4%. Armenia ranks 82 and Georgia is on the 89th place.

The Early Warning Project is a joint initiative of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, and the Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College. The Early Warning Project produces risk assessments of the potential for mass atrocities around the world by combining state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative analysis.


Discussion Policy

Comments are welcomed and encouraged. Though you are fully responsible for the content you post, comments that include profanity, personal attacks or other inappropriate material will not be permitted. Asbarez reserves the right to block users who violate any of our posting standards and policies.


  1. Norin said:

    A meaningless list, the Europoean countries that have directly been responsible for 2 world wars are at zero risk on the list and little old Armenia ranks higher. Let’s add a 4th variable to that calculator “historic instigator if war, poverty, and imperialism as part of foreign policy”. With this new variable, the new list will have the UK, Israel, U.S., and most European nations at the top as “highest risk for mass attrocities”. These nations have been screwing the world for the past 100 years and have the Gaul to come up with this “risk assessment” chastising the nations that were their beleaguered victims in the 20th century.