Among the countries of the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan faces the highest risk of potential mass atrocities in 2015, according to a map and ranking of Global Risk Assessments compiled by the Early Warning Project.
According to 2015 data, there is a 0.5% statistical risk of mass atrocities in Azerbaijan. The country ranks 74 out of 162.
The Statistical Risk Assessment is produced by averaging the forecasts from three models – Bad Regime (the characteristics of a country’s national politics that hint at a potential for a regime to commit mass atrocities, especially in the context of political instability), Elite Threat (the potential threats to a regime’s hold on power that might spur it to lash out against those threats in the form of a mass killing), and Random Forests (a machine-learning algorithm the project experts apply to all of the factors identified by the other two).
As of Bad Regime, Azerbaijan runs 0.8% risks, Elite Threat – 0.5%, Random Forests – 0.2%.
According to the Early Warning Project experts’ assessment, Armenia and neighboring Georgia face equal risks – 0.4%. Armenia ranks 82 and Georgia is on the 89th place.
The Early Warning Project is a joint initiative of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, and the Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College. The Early Warning Project produces risk assessments of the potential for mass atrocities around the world by combining state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative analysis.