STEPANAKERT(Tert.am)—David Babayan, Spokesman for the President of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Bako Sahakyan, forecasts no large-scale war with Azerbaijan. Babayan reached this conclusion following the Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting in Bern, and the meeting with the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, Ambassador Andrez Kasprzyk.
However, it does not mean that Azerbaijan will stop its policy of provocations.
“A large-scale war will not be unleashed for a number of reasons. To better understand the reasons for Azerbaijan’s steps, we must better understand that state’s way of thinking, life style, values and domestic situation,” Babayan said.
One the primary reasons for Azerbaijan will not unleash in a large-scale war is due to the politico-military balance between the conflicting parties. Azerbaijan is unable to war against Armenia and Artsakh and gain victory.
“If they had such a chance or even felt it could, they would have unleashed war just as they did in 1988-1990,” Babayan said.
The second reason is that the superpowers, which are actually co-chairing countries, do not want war.
“Starting a war is a most serious geopolitical act, and in the 1990s it was easier because of a geopolitical vacuum in the Transcaucasia. The USSR disintegration left a vacuum, with no global power being able to prevent a war. But the situation is different now because of global actors’ interests in Azerbaijan. Among them is both the west, Russia and Iran. So war is difficult to start because it will not only involve Azerbaijan, Armenia and Artsakh, but also global actors,” Babayan said.
Should Azerbaijan unleash war, it will cause intolerance to and isolation of that state.
“That prevents Ilham Aliyev from taking practical steps. Of course, he could if he fails to be fully aware of the real situation. But it would prove disastrous for Azerbaijan and for the Aliyev clan given the processes inside that country,” said Babayan.
One more reason why Azerbaijan will not start war is the ruling clan’s weakening positions in Azerbaijan and, as a consequence, persecution of not only opposition members, but also government bodies – arrests and resignations in Azerbaijan’s foreign office and police.
“Especially the oil price decline has caused such consequences because they are ‘on the oil needle’ like drug addicts. And it is primarily being done to retain power,” said Babayan. The best way is to develop concept of the enemy, which enables the ruling regime to represent all the opponents of Aliyev as “enemies of the people.”
The spokesman for Artsakh’s president welcomes the very fact that President Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev held a meeting after a year’s interval, despite the fact that the meeting was followed by border incidents that claimed dozens of lives, “because they help maintain stability in the region.”
Babayan is sure Azerbaijan will continue “Turkey-backed” attacks on the border. This echoes the Azerbaijani defense minister’s statements in Turkey that “we are not afraid of anything as long as our big brother is beside us.”