US National Intelligence Warns of ‘Large-Scale Hostilities’ in Karabakh

Armenian soldiers at an army post at the Artsakh-Azerbaijan border (Source: Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia)
Armenian soldiers at an army post at the Artsakh-Azerbaijan border (Source: Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia)

Armenian soldiers at an army post at the Artsakh-Azerbaijan border (Source: Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia)

WASHINGTON (Armenian Weekly)— The United States Director of National Intelligence Daniel R. Coats published on May 11 the U.S. Intelligence Community’s (IC) 2017 “Statement for the Record” entitled “Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community,” which includes a part on the increased tensions between Artsakh and Azerbaijan that took place in April 2016.

The IC is a federation of 16 separate U.S. government agencies that work separately and together to conduct intelligence activities considered necessary for the conduct of foreign relations and national security of the United States. The statement that assesses potential threats to U.S. national security reflects the collective insights of the Intelligence Community.

The statement, which is divided into global and regional threats, includes subcategories like cyber threats, weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, and counterintelligence.

Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are addressed in the “Russia and Eurasia,” section of the regional threats division, in a subsection entitled “The Caucasus and Central Asia.”

The statement provides particular attention to the escalation of tensions between Artsakh and Azerbaijan and concludes that the situation is likely to remain in 2017. It also makes a reference to Azerbaijan’s economic difficulties and the possibility of Azerbaijan’s regime being challenged as a result.

“We in the Intelligence Community are committed every day to provide the nuanced, multidisciplinary intelligence that policymakers, warfighters, and domestic law enforcement personnel need to protect American lives and America’s interests anywhere in the world,” read a part of the report.

Below is the section on Armenia and Azerbaijan in its entirety:

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Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabagh flared in April 2016, and both sides’ unwillingness to compromise and mounting domestic pressures suggest that the potential for large-scale hostilities will remain in 2017. In Azerbaijan, ongoing economic difficulties are likely to challenge the regime and increase its tendency to repress dissent to maintain power while it continues to try to balance relations with Russia, Iran, and the West.

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10 Comments

  1. State of Emergency said:

    As long as our so-called ally Russia makes contradictory statements everyday, another large scale attack will happen sooner or later.

    • Raffi said:

      If attacked Armenia will be in good position nationally and internationally.

    • Armenian Christian said:

      Do you prefer The hook noses to the Russians….. because that is our choice….. move smarter than you are now….

    • Arn.Sweden. said:

      Well – I Think Russias flirtation with the Turks will soon end.

      Arn.Sweden.

  2. Maro said:

    One problem is that Armenian forces are in defensive mode only.
    That is, Azerbaijan can strike anytime it wants, apparently with little fear of losing territory.
    Moreover, Azerbaijan has 5 times as many people to draw on in its armed forces because Azerbaijan’s population is about 5 times that of Armenia.
    This must change or Armenians will be worn down.
    I suggest striking at Azeri gas and oil pipelines either through artillery or missile attacks or other activities.
    Also, strike at Azeri reservoirs and flood Azerbaijan.

    • Raffi said:

      Azerbaijan is on path of bankruptcy, Armenians are doing great by avoiding all out war.

    • Armenian Christian said:

      Last time the odds were stacked against us even worse then they are now…. we all saw what happened

    • Arn.Sweden. said:

      I sugest that Armenia wait untill Russias intercourse with the Turks ends and Iran will also join in against the Turks.

      Arn.Sweden.

  3. s boghossian said:

    could not agree more Maro, the next hit needs to be Mingachevir the oil pipelines, followed by Ganja, let these pigs bleed, this is how they get it!!!!

    • Edward Demiraiakian said:

      Absolutely not. No pipeline destruction. Not unless you want NATO against Armenia. Armenia must remain and promomote private property rights. It may capture parts of the pipeline and demand transit fees, but not destruction. The Armenians have the reluctant but simpathetic ear of the major powers. Lets work with that.

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