New Karabakh War Will Devastate Azeri Economy, Says Analyst

Oil fields in Baku pump crude from the Caspian to be processed and sent to the West through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline. The outbreak of war would endanger the pipeline and bring an end to oil exports for Azerbaijan.

BAKU (News.az)—A renewed war over Nagorno-Karabakh will result in a nightmare scenario for Azerbaijan, grinding its oil-based economy to a halt and bringing an end to international investment in the country, according to the head of a think tank centered around former Soviet issues.

Konstantin Zatulin, the director of the CIS Countries Institute, made his prediction during an interview with Voice of America focused on the trilateral talks between the presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia held in Sochi on Monday.

Zatulin painted a bleak picture of what lay ahead for Armenia and Azerbaijan, saying that “he sees no prospects” for the resolution of the longstanding conflict, mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group.  

“Official Baku and Yerevan have different views about the final results of the current negotiations,” he said, predicting that the impasse could lead only to one side opting to use force to resolve the situation.

Zatulin noted, however, that success for Azerbaijan in a new war is “not obvious” and will “cause great economic problems and a pulling out of international investments for which Azerbaijan is striving today.”

Negotiations are better than war, he said they support the level of trust and preserve hope for the future peaceful way of the conflict settlement.

The analyst presented a possible scenario in case negotiations completely break down, describing a situation in which Russia, the US, and the EU “dictate conditions of a final settlement to Baku and Yerevan.”

But the success of such a move is unlikely, he noted. “First of all the conflicting parties can refuse to fulfill the provisions of the leading superpowers and second, the regional superpowers–urkey and Iran–may declare their own special interest.”

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27 Comments

  1. Jerry, NYC said:

    The analysist has a good point. In case of war, Azaris should fear armanian comandoes destroying all oil pipelines and set irreversible damage to the oilfields. Go produce oil or gas, Azerbaijan. Armenian blood is ready to replace your oil. The damages should be extensive. I think armanians have enough fedayeens for the job

  2. Frank said:

    Is that all your worried about analysts.
    How much and how much more.
    This is what Alyiev is also busy calculating and he is a greedy pig.
    For Armenians we are thinking like Vartan Մամիկոնյան.
    Armenians have fought all their wars.
    I look at our enemy and I think of what our people went threw before  entering a war in the old days.
    We had no choice

  3. Jacob said:

    You are correct, Armenia Can do what you described with russias help, let me be very clear, Im Armenian my self and was born in USA and been here all my life, Truth to be Told, i visited armenia twice already, my own country i love it, but again Truth to be told is Resources are the issue with armenia, Long term war will be difficult to fight since armenian population is only .25 of azeris, their Budget is 5 to 10 times more and they have more money, to invest in military. nother thing is armenians are fighters and will fight till end of blood, however it would not benefit anyone, this issue is Azeris have more $$ and that’s the key of the War, and oil is the #1 which will make them win in a long term, but like i said Russia, USA and Europe will not allow it to go for long, i just hope it doesn’t happen and nobady should die anymore, every persons life is on Gods hands, everyone is a father or brother or Son, it’s ugly to loose a loved one and it’s hard, no person wants it. doesn’t matter he is Azeri or Armenian..

    • PapaJohns said:

      Yes, that is a sensible approach. Glad to see such a calm person on this website.

    • ashot said:

      they were bigger n stronger last time to… u saw what happend.. i hate armenians who dont have any testicles.. ur american not armenian

  4. Teymur said:

    It’s silly to think that Azerbaijan will not respond as Armenia does.
    1.  Azerbaijan Army is much more powerful than Armenian. Azerbaijan air forces can destroy whole Yerevan. We have modern rocket complexes. Russia might interfere to the war but it will not do that because Azerbaijan is not Georgia. Azerbaijan has good and highly developed relations with Russia. As good as Armenia itself.
    2. If Armenia will effort to damage the pipeline than we will blow up Metsamor Atom Electric station. I assure you it will more irreversible damage that explosion of oil pipelines.
    3. Armenia will not dare to do anything to the pipelines. Because those pipelines are being guarded by army of US.
    So, my dear enemies… think carefully before you do statement

    • Harutiounian said:

      Very characteristic: “… Because those pipelines are being guarded by army of US.” So, the truth is that Azeris do not have even a droplet of power to be the guardians of what they “have”.
      So, “you think carefully before you do statement”.

    • Lusik said:

      Read your own politicians saying that Azerbaijan needs to have an army! You are not fighters! This is what you say: you are not guardians of what you have. Because you do not even know what you have (read bambling speech of your Aliev during his latest interview about Nabuco).
      Reread what you have written “pipelines are being guarded by army of US”. Not by you, but by somebody else. The very beginning of Baku oil-industry is a history of Armenian engineers and businessmen.
      So, you better think deep and reflect carefully before you speak and write.

      • ron said:

        the russian base in armenia is considered to be on vacation ? or is it protecting ur country? :) i do not care for any side actualy but in fact the azeri army is much more powerful and azerbijan will definetely win the war..the russians wont do anything in order not to increase its enemies in the region…turkey will not act either since it is trying to be friendly with armenia….i just heard to today that azeris are preparing for war…i hope this will not be the solution of the conflict

        • ashot said:

          if they will definatly win… whatt are they waitin for you mongol turk… comme and get someeeee

    • Vartkes said:

      If Azerbaijan could win the outcome through military it would have done it by now.  It is not easy to attack a defensive position and come out victorious.  The offence needs much more human and military equipment to overcome the defense.  Besides your hart is not in this fight.  Armenians are fighting for much more than a piece of land.  Also, I am not sure what you think will happen if/when you try to “blow-up” the Metsamor Atomic station.  If you are expecting a mushroom cloud you will not see it since the radiactive material at the station is not weapons grade.  In any case, such an attack will impact not just Armenia but all of its neighbors,  I highly doubt any coutry in the world would tolerate such an action.  Regarding US solders guarding the pipeline, this is not relevant-the attack is against the pipeline not US soldiers.
      So, my misguided “friend”, are you ready to put your life on the line or are you just an internet “hero”.

    • kit-kat said:

      there is no doubt that Azerbaijan has more money to spend on a new war but the problem is that war is not just about money,in this case it is about your army and the weapons it possesses, Azerbaijan has spent a great deal of money to buy planes and fighters but these fighters are not modern western fighters with sophisticated technologies, they are the same fighters which Azeris used in 1990s and they were good targets for Armenian anti-aircraft systems, as for the pipeline and metsamor, let me remind you my dear “enemy” that metsamor is just an electricity generator and in case of a new war Armenia will shut it down, it is so old that it can hardly be considered an asset. On the other hand, the pipelines are like the Achilles’ heel of Azerbaijan,which means no pipeline, no money to spend on construction, army,etc.
      Nevertheless, I think Armenians should be more vigilant about Axerbaijans spending, a preventive war might be a good choice for Armenia.

    • Araxi said:

      You azeri warmongers are not fighters. Why did you pay Afghan-talibs to come and fight against the Armenians. Remember they all left your country and deserted you?
      Stop warmongering because the majority of people in your country are not azeris and they do not back your government, but Armenians all over the world are united and we know how to fight. Remember our boys reached baku? Be careful and hold your tongue, just as your aliyev needs to do.

  5. PapaJohns said:

    In case of a war with Azerbaijan, don’t think Turkey will remain spectator. Turkey has a different government than that of 1993. Even Russia may involve. This will be a great opportunity for Moscow to expand its  hemisphere. I hope not, but outcomes of war will not stay within borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. It may descend into a power struggle between Turks and Russia over Caucasus. Backed by Washington, Turks will win.

    • Harutiounian said:

      Yes, Turks are different! They change. They arrived to the world as conquerors of ancient civilizations. Then they did their first wrong alliance (WWI). They they did second wrong alliance (WWII). What this progress line extrapolates toward? The best guess is that they finally will become a perfect loser!

  6. manooshag said:

    Hye, Jerry, why wait?  Do it and shake the world up to the needs of the Armenians against these
    uncivilized Turkey Turks and the Turic Azeris – bullies who still seek to eliminate the fledgling nation of Armenia.   Oil speaks louder than words… Manooshag

    • ron said:

      if turkey wanted armenia gone it will take it 24 hours to invade armenia…but the uncivilized turks are actualy becoming more civilized and trying to become friends with their neighbours..

      • ashot said:

        if u want come n try to whipe me out im only one armenian ill whipe my on ur face u ypungster

  7. Haro Mherian, Ph.D. Mathematics, UCLA said:

    I don’t think Azerbaijan will commence a full attack on Armenia or even on Artsakh without a initiation command from Ankara. Secondly, a full scale war is not in the best interest of Ankara at this very moment (not for the next 20 years anyways). Russian dominance will increase in the time interval of at least 3 years. Global economy will put more restriction on any strategic or geopolitical changes in the entire region. Currently, the only vacuum that still exist are the Western Armenian region (including Javakhk) and the Udik region (still occupied by Azeries), which are now under a race by several national forces (i.e. ethnic Turks, Kurds and Armenians). The race is not military and cannot be resolved in any military manner. In the case of any foolish military act by Azeries, the Udik region will be liberated by Armenians (in a lawful manner and as a reaction to the attack), but they will not bomb any oil fields or pipelines (Armenian military forces are not that stupid). On the western region, the Kurds will be forced to defend themselves against aggressive extermination of Ankara. The Russians will eliminate the pro-NATO government of Georgia (probably by the next year). This scenario is the most likely scenario in my calculated view. Given these, I don’t believe that Azerie people (not the government) are ready or stupid enough for such a foolish military attack.

    • Araxi said:

      I fully agree with you. The azeris have oil rigs that can be bombarded, thus the collapse of their whole economy. There is a saying,  “Poeple in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.”

      • ron said:

        you guys are talking that : day 1 war starts armenia bombs the oil pipes and the war is over….dont u get it that the azeri army is not like it used to be 20 years ago?! it is more powerful than the armenian army now…it can definitely win the war…and if ankara helped which i think will not it will take them few days to win the war

        • MecHayastan said:

          It’s obvious that you don’t have any knowledge of military strategy. You’re just one more stupid materialist who thinks it’s just about the money and the material. But I’m not even going to discuss it with you cause you won’t get it anyways. What I want to say is if this non-existing country, which is just an old province of Iran, was so confident about winning the war than it woould have have started a war rather yesterday than tomorow. Those foolish treats are part of their internal policy. They know they cannot win a war, they don’t have the heart to fight. Turks are perfecte warrior…if they have to fight defenceless women and childeren. Maybe you should rethink your position. Peace

  8. Pingback: New Karabakh War Will Devastate Azeri Economy, Says Analyst … | azerbaijantoday

  9. Kiazer Souze said:

    Congress, the American people and this president all see how they got bent over the barrel by BIG OIL (Pulp Fiction style).  The US, and the entire world are thinking about reducing their need for fossil fuels. It is not going to happen overnight. The next waive of energy is going to come from nuclear, solar, wind, thermals, and other renewable resources. The world has had enough of wars, genocides etc….for natural resources.

    American mothers are tired of losing their sons for BIG OIL. The permium for uranium is going to go through the roof. More so than the dictatorships that are sitting on fossil fuels and will stop at nothing to keep pushing that addiction. The US, I believe, is going to take a different approach in foriegn policy. They are going to court contries with a different strategic alliance in mind ( for national security reasons, of course).

  10. Elvin Azeri said:

    the economy of azerbaijan is more more powerful than armenians. isnt it true? yourself know it. speak how you want. the main is result. and the result is very good for us (Azerbaijan)

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