A Karabakh War May Have Global Impact, Says Analyst

AUSTIN, TX–An analyst for Strafor Global Intelligence has said that the continuing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can have global ramifications, regardless of the role the regional powers play in the conflict resolution process or in their positioning for regional dominance.

“Things could get out of hand, not because Russia, Turkey or Iran want it to get out of hand, but because simply the internal dynamics of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan take over and we have situation like in 1914 when a local conflict in Bosnia created a global war,” said Strafor analyst Marko Papic in a video interview obtained from the organization’s Web site.

Warning that Russia, Turkey and Iran could find themselves in a conflict that is out of their hands, Papic said that Nagorno-Karabakh is a very important topic right now because “the interplay of these major regional powers is going to depend on what happens in Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

“Russian interests from start for this particular conflict have been to really involve Turkey in an intractable conflict that really cannot be solved. And this really wastes Turkey’s time and energy in a region where Russia feels very secure—it feels that its not going to lose any leverage over either Armenia or Azerbaijan because of inroads Turkey may make. Furthermore, Azerbaijan seems to slowly be drifting toward Russia, as it feels spurned by Turkish negotiations with Armenia,” added Papic.

Strafor Global Intelligence is an international think-tank specializing in reports and analysis of global issues and events.

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23 Comments

  1. Kiazer Souze said:

    This map is inaccurate. It doesn’t show Western Armenia and the liberated Armenian territories in Artsagh.

  2. Haro Mherian, Ph.D. Mathematics, UCLA said:

    This article does not shed any light and is void of any important information. The situation of 1914 does not even compare to the current geopolitical situation. In fact, the current situation is more like 1800-1850 political status, and never like 1914. I assume that since Marco’s background is the Balkan history, he only compares everything with his hammer.
    But one thing is clear. If an aggressive Turkey along with their brother Azeries attempts a full-scale attack on Armenia or even Artsakh. The reaction will indeed be global and will come from the Diaspora. This will paralyze almost all war activities putting the aggressor into a deadlock (i.e. war cannot prolong too much for Turkey or NATO).
    Here is a simpler reasoning, global war in the region is impossible because there is no power vacuum left in the region. Yes, there are some weak points on the west of Arax river and Javakhk, but these regions are strategically not very important (they are on the wrong side of geo-strategic lines, the right sides are Yerznga, Tigranagert and Tavros range, these occupied regions are very well controlled by the Turks).
    OK, now let us consider the Azeri-Russian relations. Even if the Azeries convert into Russians (i.e. change their religion and language), the Russian national inclination will not get deeper than what it was prior to 1988 situation, when Soviet army was fighting along with the Azeries. On the other hand, if things become really serious for Russians, they can very easily occupy Baku and get rid of the Azerbaijan government all together. In terms of geo-strategy, the entire location of Azerbaijan is on the wrong side of geo-strategic lines (in this case the East banks of Arax river are the right side).
    All these imply that war cannot occur in this region for the next 5 to 10 years. Geopolitically, this region is already in a war-proof deadlock.

  3. Grigor Markaryan said:

    Turkey is a threat to the world peace and security. Put the Genocidal Turkey on trial for crimes against humanity.

  4. Santen Magar said:

    I can not believe that Asbarez still does not have a current map of Armenia and Artshagh(Karabagh). The above depicted map is not the reality of today. Artshagh is much greater than it is depicted on the map shown. Maybe Asbarez is afraid that the Azeri government will object to depicting the correct map of today.
    Unbelievable!

    • Admin said:

      The map posted with this article is the map used by Stratfor in its “Video Dispatch” where Marc Papic discusses his prediction. This map was chosen because it includes all the countries involved in his prediction, no accurate map of Armenia and Artsakh exists with the neighboring countries in it, furthermore, few high quality English language maps exist on the internet of Armenia and Artsakh (with Kashatagh and the liberated districts).

      Here is the video for your viewing pleasure: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6M6GjUAavo&feature=player_embedded

      Please email us a map of Armenia and Artsakh with English labels that you feel meets your standards. email it to asbarezweb@gmail.com.

      Thank you.

  5. Haro Mherian, Ph.D. Mathematics, UCLA said:

    Also, the war between Georgia and Russia should not have occurred if Russians did not allow it. Simply said, the Russians played a mouse-trap on the idiot Saakeshvili. The war only demonstrated what an idiot and inept Saakeshvili regime is. And again, it proves my point, this war lasted only a few days, compared with the Karabagh war it was a mickey-mouse.
    The same reasoning holds now, any attack by Azeries will last only a few days, and the aggressor will lose the entire Udik region (all territory south of Kur river). In this case, because of the rapid advancement of the Armenian forces, Baku will immediately request a seize fire and will agree unconditionally to the surrendering terms. The length of such war will be very limited in time and locality.
    In a word “not everything Simon says is true”. If you recall the game “Simon says…”, well that’s what Strafor is playing. Most of their predictions are crap…

  6. Frank said:

    These people dont know what they are talking about 
    The only thing I  know is if our soldiers went to Baku why did they retreat
    I know that the reason was that the international community would not tolerate that or something like that.
    If  the international community had morals hey would not let the Armenian Genocide continue the way it did for so long.
    The international community has accept our terms
    Now after 20 years later maybe more or less, we see that we have to go take Baku.
    How many losses of our soldiers are we going to see because of this decision.
    This is something that hurts me a lot

  7. William said:

    This map has the worst color scheme I’ve ever seen. Unless the colors are coded to mean something and we’ve not been informed.

  8. Dave said:

    Armenians hold the territory in question, Artsakh, and more.   This is power and the article above is another good antidote to those Armenians who continually say that Armenia is weak and that the major powers do not care about it. 
    The major powers care very much, in fact, even if Armenia itself does not have oil and gas. 
    Some Armenians prefer, however, to see themselves as weak nevertheless.

    Armenia has a very important geographical position.  History reveals that empires fight over it.  In the present, Armenia is seen by the US as an another way (besides Georgia, the ONLY way) to penetrate to the Caspian.  Russia sees Armenia as an ally against those that threaten Russian hegemony.  Someone once told me that if the Armenian – Turkish border opened, it would not make news at all because no one cares.  On the contrary, as we have seen, the major powers  care very much, each for their own reasons, and for how they feel they can benefit.

  9. Pingback: A Karabakh War May Have Global Impact, Says Analyst | Asbarez … | armeniatoday

  10. Guest said:

    If there will be a war, I’m just wondering how willing young Armenian Americans will be to join the fighting, especially those who are so desirous of taking back land.

    • Kiazer Souze said:

      Monte Melkonian was a diasporan Armenian. I’m sure there will be some more like him with the help of the US government to balance things out.

      • հյուր said:

        What do you think about the claims that Monte was killed by his own side? Not so much the actual truth of such claims, but that they even exist and are considered by people a believable explanation of his death?

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  12. Frank said:

    Hi Guest
    For the love of our country we will have many  fighters from abroad go to any war that may happen.
    In the last war we had our feedayees go there
    The most famous Armenian fighter from abroad was Monte
    He is an Armenian hero
    Like Vartan Mamigonian

    • Guest said:

      But are there not legitimate accusations that Monte was killed by his own side? If diaspora Armenians could believe such things, I don’t think they would be willing to fight for such people. Because, in the end, the fight will be for the Armenians living there and not the ones in the diaspora. And they are two separate peoples.

  13. Araxi said:

    May I inform our Guest, that it was the Diasporan Armenian young men who joined their compatriots and won the Karabagh war. Go to youtube and find out for yourself. Or are you just playing a turkish cat and mouse game.

    The above article should be put in the recycling bin. I cannot for a moment believe that a thinktank could make such stupid predictions. The article smells of Caspian oil!

    • հյուր said:

      Araxi, your հյուր has now been informed, but not sufficiently, and so many questions remain unanswered. Among them: how many Armenian young men from the Diaspora actually went? What about the Russian role in that war, especially their supplying of arms? I admit that the determination of the Armenian side was what ultimately resulted in Armenian victory, but determination and desire by itself will not result in victory in any future NK war. Weapons are required, and if one side is more heavily armed than the other, what will the result be? The question is important not so much for the past war but more for any future war because of heavy Azeri military spending.
      Also, is the game still a Turkish cat and mouse game if no one involved is Turkish? Because I am not Turkish, and I’m pretty sure that neither are you.

  14. Haro Mherian, Ph.D. Mathematics, UCLA said:

    Speaking of the maps and the coloring that a few of the commentors noticed, this is US State Department/CIA/Stratfor maps, and the coloring means as follows: the more red means enemy territory (or controlled by enemies to US/NATO), and the more yellow means friends to US/NATO. In fact in the original video of Marco at one some point the narrator says ” our friend” Turkey, and then mentions “… its HISTORIC ENEMY ARMENIA…”, it looks like we are presented as the BAD enemies of their GOOD beloved Turks in the video clip. Please go to Stratfor and look at the video, and then send a complaint to Friedman organization treating to boycott their website and business. As I said, they are nothing but craps. Out of their 10,000 predictions not even 100 came true. The ones that came true were the ones that were already obvious. There are some very good geopolitical professors in USA, that have predicted many things in details, with almost a 80% accuracy. These professors are not and will not be involved with the CIA and State Department by their honest and truthful reasons. Go to the bookstore and look for some good authors other than Friedman B.S. books.

  15. ellen said:

    Webster Tarpley is a great example of accurate predictions although he doesn’t concentrate on Armenia, but he does talk about the region from time to time.

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