New Karabakh War ‘Inevitable,’ Says Russian Analyst

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (left) and his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sarkisian meet in St. Petersburg last month -- no room for Nagorno-Karabakh?

BAKU (News.az)—A Russian military analyst is predicting that a new war in the South Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan has become inevitable because of the rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey.

Speaking to the Armenian service of Radio Free Europe, Pavel Felgenhauer described the threat of war as real and dangerous and added that Azerbaijan would go to any length to prevent the ratification of agreements between Armenia and Turkey to normalize relations—including war.. ‘Today there is a real threat of a destabilization of the situation,’ he said, adding that he believed the desire to avert war no longer exists for Azerbaijan.

“Azerbaijan will take this step even if the resumption of hostilities was not in its favor,” he explained. “The aim of the step is not to return Karabakh but to prevent ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols.”

“Before, neither Baku nor Yerevan wanted the worsening of the situation. Today, everything has changed,” Felgenhauer said. “Aliyev’s administration has set a serious objective for which it may risk and start hostilities again.”

‘The situation is no longer frozen and anything can happen now,’ he said.

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