Azerbaijan Can’t Beat Karabakh Forces, Says Ex US Envoy

 
 

Ex US Ambassador to Baku Anne Derse

State Department cables show US scrambling to “buy” Azerbaijan’s silence on the Turkey-Armenia rapprochement process.

Azerbaijan’s military spending has not translated into an advantage for Baku, according to former US Ambassador to Azerbaijan, who in US diplomatic cable obtained by Wikileaks, said that the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Army has an advantage over Azeri forces in the event of war.

“Azerbaijan, even with its focus on improving its military capability, is unlikely anytime soon to structure a force large or well-equipped enough to overcome the terrain advantages enjoyed by the NK Self-Defense Force and the Armenian army,” said Derse in a US Embassy cable released by Wikileaks and published in the Moscow-based Russian Reporter Magazine.

The State Department cables show a rift between Turkish and Azeri leaders in the wake of the Turkey-Armenia rapprochement process and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s efforts to pressure the US to give in to its demands of higher military aid and other diplomatic overtures.

“Azerbaijan’s negative reactions to Turkey are fueled by [Turkish Prime Minister Receop Tayyip] Erdogan and [Turkish President Abdullah] Gul’s unfriendly treatment of Aliyev. Aliyev believes the Turks would have sold Azerbaijan out months ago without even the courtesy of a consultation. Azerbaijan’s trepidation about the process is also magnified by the drift I perceived in its relations with the United Stats, whom Baku perceives more and more to be responsible for the Turkey-Armenia process,” explained Derse in the cable.

“While the extent of Aliyev’s influence on the Turkey-Armenia process is debatable, what is obvious is that the U.S. is steadily losing influence in Azerbaijan as the process moves forward,” added the cable.

“It is plain that the United States cannot give President Aliyev what he really wants, which is an explicit linkage of the border opening to a solution of NK,” said the cable, which highlighted that Aliyev asked Ambassador Derse to explore:
–Progress on walking back Section 907;
–Defensive military sales, particularly air defense; and
–High-level actions to show commitment to solving NK,” outlined the cables.

“Either delivering on one of these items or showing a willingness to have serious dialogue on these requests could be enough to ‘buy’ Azerbaijani silence on Turkey-Armenia,” added the cables.

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13 Comments

  1. Gagik said:

    Now do you see that the protocols weren’t so bad? They were never to materialize in the first place, and Armenia knew that. The process did benefit us in damaging Turkish-Azeri relations and Azerbaijan’s stance towards the US and vice-versa.

    • Sarkis said:

      If our President and his FM believed that the doomed protocols would never materialize in the first place, then they deserve the Oscar for best acting on Sunday night. But I have serious doubts about that. They have yet to convince us that they are not people on the take; that they are people of vision that can be trusted to fight to the end for the Armenian cause.

    • bigmoustache said:

      where were you to see the damage it caused? all those years of HARD work, we made it like the jewish genocde where they wouldnt DARE present it as a 2 sided story. tutoum kloukh gives turkey a microphone and jouirnalists talking about this bridge building of ‘historic rivals’ and turkeys demands…”armenian genocide? oh well, the armenians say this and the turks say that”
      anyway were not against reapproachment but it wouldnt help, it would hurt armenia much more..
      how much turkish goods have you seen in a grocery store in yerevan, how much armenian goods do you think are in turkey? if the borders were totally opened armenian business would suffer a lot.
      and how long do you think it would last anyway? how long until turkey closed it again for whatever reason? how easy is it for azerbaijan to ruin it? azerbaijan attacks armenia, armenia defends herself, turkey backs they azeri lie, the border is closed again…armenian genocide, kharapagh, khojali..what BS excuses they could give..forget these barbarians, we should strenghten our ties with kurds. if kurds are next people to get land, and armenians help them, we can take a piece of our historical land too.

      • I like how you speak said:

        I like everything you said but kurds shouldnt be trusted You never know what there doing with the turks they are after all the same people

  2. Berge Jololian said:

    The failed-US-State-Department can not be trusted in any way. They have managed to get their darling Bryza as the new ambassador to Baku. The failed-US-SD will not cease its attempts to force Armenia to capitulate. It is more likely that the Russian Federation is acting as a deterrence preventing the failed-US SD from crushing Armenia. It is a careful balance between the two – not a fan of either.

  3. Berge Jololian said:

    Here is an interesting piece of news that the failed-US-State-Department would never offer to help Armenian citizens:

    “Russian officials announced Wednesday that all Russian citizens had been airlifted from the capital of violence-torn Libya. Three jets belonging to the Emergency Situations Ministry flew in to Moscow’s Domodedovo Airport from Tripoli with 339 Russians as well as citizens of **Armenia**, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.”

  4. Armanen said:

    Berge:

    You have no good reasons not to like the Russians. Don’t confuse them with the bolsheviks, not the same.

  5. Z said:

    Of course they can’t beat NKR, if they could they would’ve done it before. We should just neglect these azeris and all, consolidate our positions and move forward.

  6. immortal Souls of western Armenia risen said:

    thank you Berge! agree with you!! even the ambassadors intention in saying Karabakh forces are better, can not be trusted.

  7. Պարոն Համեստ said:

    Հերիք չէ՞ որ մեր մասին ուրիշի յայտարածն ու փսփսածը դարձնենք մեզ համար իրերը քննելու լուսարձակ:
    Ես կ’ըսեմ, ժամանակը հասունցած է, որ Արցախեան բանակը շանթահար յարձակումով անակնկալի բերէ Ազերի իշխանութիւնները ու ողջ աշխարհը ու հասնի մինչև Կուր գետ իր հսկողութեան տակ առնելով քարիւղի և կազի մղիչ կայանները, ազդելու համար համաշխարհային շուկային ու պարտադրելու մեծ տէրութիւններուն ընդունիլ բոլոր հայկական պահանջները:

    • Avery said:

      Հարքելի Պարոն Համեստ.

      Անկասկած դուք խիզախորեն պիտի ըլլաք շանթահար յարձակումի թիվ մեկ հրասայուն մեչ:

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