U.S. Intelligence Chief Warns Of New Karabakh War

U.S. National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair testifies during a hearing before the Senate (Select) Intelligence Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on February 2, 2010

WASHINGTON (RFE/RL)–The likelihood of another Armenian-Azerbaijani war for Nagorno-Karabakh has increased as a result of the U.S.-backed rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey, according to America’s top intelligence official.

“Although there has been progress in the past year toward Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, this has affected the delicate relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and increases the risk of a renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh,” Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair warned late Tuesday in written testimony to a U.S. Senate committee.

Blair also warned of broader security and stability threats persisting in the South Caucasus. “The unresolved conflicts of the Caucasus provide the most likely flashpoints in the Eurasia region,” he said. “Moscow’s expanded military presence in and political-economic ties to Georgia’s separatist regions of South Ossetia and sporadic low-level violence increase the risk of miscalculation or overreaction leading to renewed fighting.”

The United States has strongly supported and at times mediated in the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement that began nearly two years ago and led to the signing last October of two “protocols” envisaging the normalization of relations between the two historical foes.

Azerbaijan has condemned the agreements, saying that an open border with Turkey would only discourage Armenia from conceding to Baku’s demands that Karabakh be put under Azeri rule. Azerbaijani leaders have also continued to threaten to win back Karabakh and the liberated Armenian territories linking Karabakh and Armenia by force.

The authorities in Armenia and Karabakh have dismissed the war threats. International mediators have also disapproved of them, repeatedly urging Baku to to refrain from bellicose rhetoric.

U.S. diplomats have seemed confident, at least until recently, that chances for renewed large-scale fighting in Karabakh are slim. Speaking to RFE/RL in October 2008, then U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried said the danger of another war “has somewhat receded because the [August 2008] war in Georgia reminded everyone in this region how terrible war is.” “War is no joke,” Fried said. “It’s a bad option.”


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  1. Lusik said:

    one of major problems of ending war in iraq was and remains a gigantic expenses needed for the removal of weapons and amunition.
    now, one can sell these “goods” to small “frozen” local conflicts by defrosting them. so, my point is that all these officials calling to do this or that, try, in reality, to keep theses conflicts defrosted.
    see how many local army top officials have traveled recently. see, for instance, azerbaijani minister visiting israel, which makes good money on this deal.

    • Armanen said:

      Very good point.  It is in the interests of some for their to be conflict and chaos in the Caucasus, which will provide a revenue stream for the military industrial complex, albeit indirectly, and of course the u.s would like nothing more than to regain the ground it lost to Russia after the August 2008 war.

      The question is, what will Armenians in the Diaspora do in case war erupts?  What will the organizations that represent us do?  It MUST be more than was done during 1991-1994.

  2. Manvel said:

    A new war will definitely bring new major problems to the region.  But if  Baku decides that war is the only option.   The response will  be severe and swift.   If you corner a cat  in a room,  it will attack.     Us Armenians are now cornered.  We have no where else to go.

  3. Haro Mherian, Ph.D. Mathematics, UCLA said:

    If Dennis Blair  and the State Department stops giving new millitary weapons to Turks, there will be no war in the region. The State Department must also be reminded that if they really hate Iranians, they can always fight them from the Persian Gulf, and leave Armenians in the north alone. Enough of making Armenia a battle ground for stupid wars of empires.

    • Sion Arakelian, J.D. Southwestern Law School said:

      good point, Armenian must not be the tool of other powers – neither the US nor Russia.

    • Gayane said:


      It seems like there is just ONE country that they HAVE to involve in EVERY STUPID AND EVIL plans these low life crawlers… and that is Armenia.. I mean seriously.. can they just leave us alone?


  4. Lusik said:

    is denis blair relative to tony blair who said he will hang hussein again given chance?

  5. Hovik said:

    Base on history, U.S. inelegance calculation was always wrong and frailer, if azerbaijan had ability to take  back they would do it long before when azer people was over heated, every day is passing the reason for another war getting weak and weaker cus people of azerbaijan getting uncomfortable and weak feelings to live in some mountain land close to Armenia with most populated Armenians and war memories instead almost good camp condition they have now.

  6. JERRY said:

    The turkish proverb says, ” if you come, you shall see”
    We armenian americans should be aware that our tax money goes to Turkey in a large way,then to Azerbajan by proxy. If azeris go to an unjust war, after massacring armenians in Baku and Sumgate,( throwing them from four story buildings to their death) and now attack us again, then its only fair if we first take out their oilfields, gaz pipelines and all their resources. This is considered  self defense on our part. Fedayeens, be ready, if not, the mongols will kill us anyway, butcher us with knives like their history is famous for.Oil always sends the best message for all concerned.Like manvel says, don’t corner this cat, the armenians, we have nothing to lose anymore

  7. Krikor said:

    US is more interested in the Azeri oil that protecting Armenians.BUT if Azeri’s dare to start a new war the firs thing to bomb will be the pipeline The Armanian respose will be severe. And they know this.
    Who raises the sword will be punished by the sword.

  8. Zareh said:

    Is this Obama administration talking with two side of their mouths? This surely sounds and smells like a warning shot to Armenia’s bow. Since, after all that’s happened with the protocols, the US cannot possibly link Turkey-Armenia relations to Karabakh, therefore, the Intelligence Chief now has assumed the job of linking the protocols to Karabakh, without actually mentioning the word “protocols”, but by saying Chances of war has increased “as a result of the U.S.-backed rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey”. REALLY? what does this mean, just how does a peace process increase chances of war? Most importantly this I.C. does not clarify nor explain why there could be a war?
    Looks like President Obama either has less of a control over foreign policy issues than we think, or he’s been involved in a double-crossing act against the Armenians all the while. Either way this does not bode well for this president. Choice between inaptitude or animosity is not what Armenians were hoping from this wind of “change”.

    • Lusik said:

      agree! IC is consistent! remember obama’s Peace NP speech: “war is peace and peace is war”.

  9. Karo from Virq said:

    Another war will unite armenians worldwide again & enemy will be crushed.
    Our other lands should be liberated sooner or later, so azero-turks will just give us another chance.
    Though, baku is not ready now, so I can’t see new war in nearest future (couple of years).

  10. Dino Ajemian said:

    You guys are missing the big (capitalist) picture.
    It’s all about horse trading.
    Turks/azeris have what the Russians want and the Russians have what the turks/azeris want.
    It’s as plain as day. Russia is working for total control of all natural gas and oil supplies. If it can control the oil and gas that passes thru azerbaijan, it can control the world market of natural gas which means hundreds of billion extra in Euros from the wishy washy europeans. Would Russia send Armenia down the river for an extra hundred billion in gas revenues? Yes.
     It will be worse than Poland’s division by Germany and Russia in 1939.
     Why do you think nabucco has stalled?  If it means giving half of Armenia to azerbaijan to satisfy this goal it will. The payoff is higher gas bills to the europeans in the hundreds of billions. Russia will keep a smaller Armenia to service its rail and electrical distribution.

     azerbaijan will get from a war Artsakh, Zangezur, Sevan and Lori. Just recently azerbaijan sent a letter to the secretary general of the U.N. complaining that Armenia has grown from 10,000 sqkm to 29,000 sq km in the last century and those lands belong to azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has never used that kind of rhetoric before an international body. 
    Armenia will be left with 1/3 of what it started out with in 1990. And who is going to stop the azeris, backed by Russia and turkey, from doing this? Nobody! 

    Armenia will still exist although 1/3 the size and have an influx of turks and azeris warmly welcomed by the “greatful” Armenia people. Georgia will be a puppet state of russia with turkey’s backing and no one will care about azerbaijan since its oil and gas are controlled by russia.

    If I were Russian I would let the turks take as much of Armenia as I can give to get that humdred billion in Euros and if I were an Azeri I would gladly give controlof my oil and natural gas to the Russians if it means I can destroy and take 2/3 of Armenia. And as for turkey, turkey always wins no matter what the outcome. That’s why I dont believe there is a god.
    Turkey will be in control of the UN security council in June so lets see how things playout.  

    • Gayane said:


      Your piece makes sense.. Definintely feasible and can happen.. I hate to admit the truth and you may have a point; however, it is very disturbing to know that Turkey has the opportunity to rule and get out of all this with a seat in UN.. no.. i can’t believe it.. thati s just too depressing to take in.. I have faith that it will never happen..

      Hope they rot in hell..

      • Dino Ajemian said:

        Our Russian protectors have always said ” An Armenia without Armenians”. We are worth more dead than alive to the Russians or better yet the price of Armenian real estate is now high enough for a sale to the turks. Actually it’s a great time for them to cash in. It’s all very depressing but hey nothing lasts forever, who remembers the Bithynians, Lycians or Paphlagonians? They too were peoples that existed in Anatolia. We are victims of geography. A people of 200 ununified bickering  valleys. Whether by Byzantines, Persians, Arabs or turks, each nakharardom would be picked off by overwhelming forces and the other nakharadoms would sit and wait to be next. We have not learned from history that are strength is unity and decisiveness in the face of evil. The best and brightest died in 1915, the survivors shellshocked with 3 generations of dysfunctional families, a culture broken. Our finest moment was 451 but that was too late, our kingdom was destroyed by 428. Since then it’s been downhill. Now at the beginning of the 21st century only 8% of Armenian land is lived on by Armenians. The cruelty of our barbarian neighbors have no limits. We should have learned from them and be like them. We are living in the most interesting time of Armenian history, unfortunately we are at the last pages.

    • Haro Mherian, Ph.D. Mathematics, UCLA said:

      Yes Dino, that is what Turks dream to happen. But using the same line of thought as you have used: “If I was Russia, it makes more sense for me to use Armenians as a strategic anchoring force and with their help occupy Baku in 18 hours”. It’s much simpler than the Georgia war, because in contrast with Artsakh/Armenia there was no mobilizable Russian force in the south of Georgia. Therefore, the allowance of any military movement in the east of RoA/Artsakh would be more beneficial for Russians, if the movement results into the Armenians in control of the oil fields. Such a scenario can even happen by initiating a mouse-trap for Baku (as they did for Georgia). The only thing that is refraining Ankara from any military invasion is exactly this fact. The fact that the Siberian bear may turnout to also outsmart the fox species.

      • Dino Ajemian said:

        Russia will be the puppet master of all Transcaucasia. Armenia is the key to open turkey to Russia’s domination of georgia and azerbaijan. It’s easier to sacrifice Armenia to the barbarians. Turkey will be ok with Russia’s hegemony over azerbaijan as long as the bulk of Armenia becomes turkish, and maybe the turks get Ajaria in the process. Armenia is a fruit both azerbaijan and turkey wants to pick and it’s for Russia to give. turkey will never invade Armenia. Why should it? the world will say there goes turkey to finish the job it started in 1915. Very bad for historical purposes. The azeris will be the guys to do it after all they are only taking back what they consider to be theirs- 2/3 of Armenia. Armenia will sign peace treaty with azerbaijan and the europeans russians and hilary will be clapping and smiling at the signing ceremony. The europeans will be smiling because they dont wish to antagonize the bear in the room. After all the russians are building 3 aircraft carriers. The soviet union never even dreamt of having aircraft carriers!
        “Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; who rules the World-Island controls the world.”

        And so goes Russian domination (with chinese help) of the world.

        • Haro Mherian, Ph.D. Mathematics, UCLA said:

          Yes Dino, I know all that, but we are not talking about land as a state property. It’s a country with people, army, etc. etc. Russian businesses may have a hand in deciding Russian politics, yes, but at the end, the federation is not that stupid to not see what’s good for Russia.
          After all, why Russia is in conflict with Europe/US? It’s easier for them to behave just like Gorbachev did (open the doors and cry help from US and NATO).
          The truth is that Russian history has ups and downs. When it goes down, Armenia is hit, and when it goes up, David Beck, Mkhitar Sparabet, Zoravar Antranik, and others advance forward.
          And yes, you are right, we Armenians need a long term survival philosophy. The last time this was done was by the hands of St. Mesrob Mashtots.
          Turks, US/NATO and all our possible enemies know very well, that today, our weakness is not in our military forces, but rather in our today’s “ՄՇԱԿՈՅԹ”. The Armenian generation that fought the Artsakh war was raised by Baruir Sevak, while today’s Armenian youth is raised by American rabiz trash. This later weapon is what will destroy the Armenian Nation, and not dynamites or rockets.

          • Gayane said:

            It is the Mshakuyt that will keep us strong and forever present on this planet..and moving away from our old and clean traditional music, poety, and entertainment into more trashy version of these categories is definintely going to destroy what we stand for…

            I definintely agree..


    • KRIKOR said:

      DINO I agree with lot of things you said, unfortunately we are in the middle of one of the biggest battleground in modern history if not the biggest, Turkey Caucus, Caspian sea and Central Asia is the focal point of the world in the 21st century, the world, and in particular USA and Europe heavily depend and rely on this region!!! And Armenia is the weakest link in this equation!!! Big and nasty war of competition going on between Russia, Europe, USA, Turkey, the Middle East, Israel, and the Far East, and the Georgian war last year or the year before proves it, and its just the beginning! I agree that Russia has a big interest in this game and they want to control the region (Azerbaijan in particular) which they will eventually, but I am not convince that the Russians would send Armenia down the river to buy out their loyalty or control Azerbaijan, but what I believe and think is that Russia can do the same think in deferent way!! The history is repeating itself today and the same thing happened to the region after ww1! Russia will never let or allow any kind or type of unification between the Turkish nations at any costs, this is more than 200 years of strategic view the Russians are following and they will continue, what I think the Russians might do is another war between Armenia and Azerbaijan that Azeri’s come out defeated again with more territorial lose and international disturbance which will see them running back to Moscow asking for help to stop the war as they did before, since Russia has the upper hand in the region and Armenia in particular, then they will accept the Russian terms and conditions, which I believe will be more in our side, we will give up some territories at the end of the day but we will still get most of Astsakh, Russia will maintain Armenia as an ally and keep us happy, and retain  control on Azerbaijan, but this wouldn’t be the last war either, the next one would be a war between Armenia and Georgia which the Russians are preparing for it as I think!!! Because this one will seal the deal for the Russians in total control of the area, and the timing bomb is the Armenian populated region of Javakh!!!!  already we are facing problems with them, and anyone who follow the news knows what is going on there, a war in this region will do the same job and we would see another type of artsakh conflict, and here what I believe Russia pushed or encourage the opening borders and normalization in relationship between Armenia and Turkey, because a close border with Georgia is a damaging one to Armenia and that’s why Russia may push us on concessions on the western front such as pre condition genocide recognition and territorial demands  and compensation!!!?   

      • Lusik said:

        In my opinion the battle has already started. Not on the ground, but in diplomatic spheres. Believe or not, Armenia has withstood first round. I think, all involved countries can not believe that it is happening. They all sold out their constitutions long ago. Some of them are jealous, some of them wish us luck.  Reevaluation of values – this is what is going around the world. Turkey behaves like “negotiating” big economical-cultural-political tides coming from India and China. As I have said before, if it fuels war, it will become a perfect loser.
        From now on the words like – new world order, globalization, will be in any analysis and layouts. Lack of world leadership today is strangely, both the cause of war threats, and their not happening. There was an expectation that barak will take the lead. But he turned to be just a good promise make and that’s all. Everywhere was understood that there is a political vacuum. Turkey has decided to jump into it. Courageous – as Nicola Sarkozy said. But will not work – too much trouble for Israel.
        Finally, it is a) not evident that the war will be, and b) obvious that Armenia will win.

    • Lusik said:

      Your scenario assumes that Russia will ever give up its control over Azeris and agree them to become an equal partner: I give this you give me that. I think that is sounds rather like this, if you what to happen you better do this – and the list goes. So, to keep things hierarchy Russia needs a strong counterbalance. Armenia.
      Second, Armenians resilience was even credited by barak. Armenians will keep destroying anything foreign to their landscape, including pipelines and more.
      Third, Russia has to think big in order to  stay what it is. It looks and will be looking for reliable communications with Iran. All Russian allies proved to be unstable. Not Armenians.

    • Harout said:

      With all due respect, you are a pessimist. Why do u underestimate the armanian power.We have survived since Hayg Nahabed. We will fight on all fronts.Turkey is the most disliked nation by all including all Europpeans,(Greeks, Italians.germans, bulgarians,hungarians , russians,even most arabs who suffered under them for 700 years under Ottomans,slovaks,serbs,hugarians,KURDS,syrians, iraqis,pursians,etc..etc). When the time comes, like Jerry says,they come and they see. We will harm them if they harm us. Goodby to their oil, gas and other resources, as much as we can.This is our shortcut of self defense against a heavily armed nation. Armenians all over the world we be ready, politically and militarily.When I say Turkey,I include their azari brothers.Cheer up man, we are strong here in US , Armenia and abroad,and God is and has been with us in history

    • Cristina said:

      Just recently azerbaijan sent a letter to the secretary general of the U.N. complaining that Armenia has grown from 10,000 sqkm to 29,000 sq km in the last century and those lands belong to azerbaijan. => What?! This sounds incredible!!!
      Flabbergasting, to say the least…
      Do you have any proof to sustain this? press article, something?? i am more than interested to read it…

  11. raffi said:

    Any attempts for war means not only losing  the peace process  but for another 40 years but it also means good bye To aLyev and his followers

  12. raffi said:

     Ayliev can’t stay in power without war but Any attempts for war means not only losing  the peace process  but Also  means good bye to stability in the region for another 40 years  

  13. Pingback: U.S. Intelligence Chief Warns Of New Karabakh War | Asbarez … | armenia News Station

  14. Frank said:

    I can see that we have a few anti-Russian folks here.
    I personnel am not like that
    I feel that Armenians have a special bondage with the Russians and that is something the Turks and Azerbaijan will never have

    • Cristina said:

      History proves that Russia has not always been our friend, nor always ‘their’ enemy ( i make no difference between turks and azeris, they are the same for me).
      Russia does want azeri gas and oil, for herself and also to sell it to europe and get benefits from it. Selling it to Europe cannot be done without involving turkey.

  15. Guido said:

    What’s a hundred billion in Euros? No self-respecting power will give up land for a hundred billion anything – Swiss Francs, US Dollars, Euros, you name it. Turkey wants to subjugate Armenia, conquer Europe and extend it’s sphere of influence from Limerick, Ireland to Mongolia. Holland, Germany, France, Switzerland are full of Turks that keep on coming and multiplying and in the meantime many of them integrate very well and are super successful in their professions. They are  poised to project Turkish power. Russia wants to maintain it’s century old sphere of influence in the Caucasus and be in a position to block the ascension of Turkish power. There’s no way Russia will give that up in exchange for cash or assets. Armenia is a traditional anchor in the region for Russia, which they threw away once under the Bolsheviks leaving Armenia at the mercy of the Turks.  General Andranik showed up out of the blue, just like Monte Melkonian did, and whoever else will at the next impasse to kick some butt in the nick of time and preserve the Armenian spirit in the Nairi cradle. Armenia is not going to disappear at the flick of 100 000 000 000  Euros.

    • Dino Ajemian said:

      That’s a hundred billion a year. As each year passes the price of gas will increase. The amount is not the issue. It’s control of Europe through the sale of natural gas. Anyway russia will only give up a little more than half of Armenia.
      As for what you say about the barbarians, you are right. They will subjugate Europe. Western liberal democracy is going to sacrifice western civilization.
      Russia gets Georgia. They will do anything for that. Russia will get control of all gas and oil that passes thru azerbaijan. The russians will do anything for that. If it means a truncated Armenia so be it. It’s not like the russians were contemplating acquiring land from Iran or Turkey! Giving up a part of Armenia to control Transcaucasia and its wealth is well worth it. As for Armenia being a “traditional anchor”, sometimes traditions come to an end. Armenia will not dissapear. Just a smaller Armenia. A much smaller Armenia. Everybody gets what they want except Armenia. Russia will get so much in terms of power and money by placating the turks/azeris.
      Think about it.
      Russia gets:
      Warm water ports for it expanded navy that is currently being built.
      Control of azeri and central asian gas and oil.
      control of the price of natural gas to europe.
      serious influence in european affairs.
      The power equation does not change between turkey and russia.
      The partnership only gets stronger.
      All for the low price of 7,000 sq miles of resourceless Armenia.
       Russia is( 6.6 million sq miles)
      They will be giving up 1/1000th of their land for a whole lot of power, money and more land.
      Think of it from their perspective.

    • Dino Ajemian said:

      ” No self-respecting power will give up land for a hundred billion anything ”
      Oh really?
      Armenia in September-October 1993 was being sold down the river for a sum considerably less than 100 billion euros– sold for the extraordinary sum of…drumroll please…zip, zero, nada.

              A deal was hatched between Turkey and Russian members of parliment who were planning a coup to take over Russia from Boris Yeltsin. The “Russian” coup plotter that came up with this brillant plan was a chechen moslem-Khasbulatov a member of the Russian parliment.
               I was in Armenia at the time on the border and I can tell you from first hand experience turkish provocations and turkish troops amassing on Armenia’s border. Some of the incidents were reported on CNN I later find out. Turkey and Russian coup plotters came to an agreement. Turkey would be allowed to invade Armenia and Artsakh to rampage and kill Armenians as they always do in exchange for turkey’s support of the new Russian government.
                   I echo your nationalist sentiments but Russia does not love us. My point is in telling this terrible news is that nobody protects anybody just because it is the right thing to do. We are a cow that has been milked by the ottomans and russians and now we have been fattened for market and ready to be sold to the turkish slaughterhouse. Armenia is just a commodity to the Russians.

      We must learn to trust no one except ourselves.
      We must know only an Armenian can be a friend to an Armenian.
      We must be able to develop our own weapons and protect ourselves-alone.
      We must develop food and fuel security.
      In 2023 the Russian agreement of protecting Armenia will be over.
      Let’s be in a position to have real independence by then.
      If and when the Armenia gets even smaller-dont give up hope.
      We will make do, realize our mistakes and renationalize Armenia.
      Remember, it is always darkest before the dawn.


    • Dino Ajemian said:

      I wrote a response to you but the moderators deemed it not appropriate. In fact I wrote two. No different from whatever else I have been posting. I guess Guido is also a moderator or maybe asbarez was hit by an avalanch of responses by barbarians and Armenians that were not fit to post. I’m done on this subject here. I will post on this subject on my own blog.

  16. Haro Mherian, Ph.D. Mathematics, UCLA said:

    Here is my last comment for this article: Why the Artsakh war was prolonged for several years? The answer lies in the fact that Russia was in a downhill situation recovering from collapse of the Soviet Union, and during this time, Kremlin/Moscow had a power vacuum inside the federation. Once the downhill started to stabilize, all wars in the region came to a halt. The last geopolitical poke-test was attempted by USA/NATO via Georgia, which proved to be a total failure.
    Conclusion: The entire Armenian Highland region is in a war-proof deadlock (for at least 5-10 years). The US/NATO are only trying to fear-monger us. Don’t fall for such a bait…

  17. Zareh said:

    Dino, as depressing as your assessment is, it is a worthwhile and sobering thought which is essential for our own good. It is always better to prepare for the worst instead of espousing opium-filled notions that would only remind us of the Arab world before Israel taught a lesson that they are still trying to “learn” from.
    However, there is one thing that cannot be overlooked. Turkish arrogance. Russia knows full well that they cannot control Turks/Azeris if the latter had the slightest notion of “self-worth” from a superpower. In this case if Russia sacrifices Armenia for benefitting  from what the Tatars have to offer in return, believe me they (turks) will not stop until every single regions of Turkish/Tatar/Laz/Cherkez/Ingoush/ Chechen/  in the Southern belly of Russia are “liberated”.
    That is why your scenario, although healthy to ponder, cannot materialize. Unless Russia contemplates committing suicide.

  18. Ruby said:

    Why nobody talks about Israel who is always hungry with an insatiable appetite, they sell arms and for that they create wars. A jewish American editor (it was a woman and possibly a zionist, unfortunately I can’t remember her bloody name) about 5-year ago she was calling on all jews to unite and help Azeri’s to fight with Armenia and that is exactly what they did and their plan is in the final stages, they have sent arms to Azeris and military trainers to boost azeri’s fighting skills. Also we always have to remember that before 1920 there was not a nation nor a country called Azerbaijan in the historey of the world, on the other hand we Armenians have been there from the beginning of the civilization and will continue to exist.

  19. Haro Mherian, Ph.D. Mathematics, UCLA said:

    Dino, most of your statements are correct, but it is a little surprising that with all your good facts, you are having difficulty deriving the minimum distance to your solution. In fact, the minimum distance for any reasonable strategy based on your arguments is to have Armenia be their (Russia’s) best partner (there is no space here for mathematical equations to give you a prove, but this conclusion could in fact be derived from your arguments as an optimal geo-strategic solution). Here are some facts that may be helpful:
    Russia is not a uniform state, it has ups and downs. It has the largest land territory in the world. On the other hand, the current Armenia is not a real-state-only valued land. It is the belly of Russia. If Armenia falls to Turks, then this fall will propagate to the fall of half of Russia, including Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Chechnya, Georgia, Cossak territory, half of Ukraine (Black Sea shores), up to an including most of Siberia, Mongolia and part of China.
    This is what Armenia means to any right minded Russian, such as Putin or Medvedev (not idiots like Stalin, Khroshev, Brezhenev and Gorbachev).
    In fact, if Armenia is ever sold, it would be sold by our own hands, and not by the Russians (I assure you).
    Finally, the Armenian land recovery issue is not at its end-story, but rather it has just started. Look at the picture from the perspective that Turks after WWII were about to lose almost 60% of Asia Minor, if it was not USA warning of the H-bomb addressed to the Russians (i.e. start of the Cold War), as well as, the idiotic adventures of Stalin. Stalin made two big mistakes during his rule of Soviet Union, the first was about the lack of the airforce defense in Moscow (until it was too late), and the second, the switching of the Armenian issue with that of the Polish. For the first one, he paid very dearly, when Hitler attacked Moscow, as for the second one, he did not live long enough to be punished by the Armenian marshalls and generals that he had betrayed.
    Also, it is not true that Russia was/is always the guardian of Armenians. In some cases, it was the other way around. For example, during the Nicholas rein, the only trusted protector of Russia was an Armenian general. A very good example is the fact that during the WWII, Armenians sent more than half a million soldiers with 4 field marshalls to the Berlin front. It can be shown that without the help of marshal Baghramian, Hilter would have crashed the entire Soviet Union (and would most probably exterminated most of the Russians). So, we are not just cows grazing in a pastoral land to be served on a plate for sale. It’s a little more complicated than that….