BY HRANT APOVIAN
“A rebel group gained “Belligerent Status” when all of the following had occurred: It controlled territory in the state against which it was rebelling; It declared independence, if its goal was secession; It had well-organized armed forces; It began hostilities against the government; And, importantly, the government recognized it as belligerent.”
Christopher Greenwood (Crimes of War)
The government of Azerbaijan has so far refused to grant recognition to the people of Artsakh rebelling against it and their subsequent wish for independence. The government of Azerbaijan refuses to admit that it has lost effective control over Artsakh. It has no intention to grant legal status despite the will of its Armenian population.
It has now been over thirty years since Azerbaijan committed war crimes by attacking the civilian population with indiscriminate bombings, and over twenty six years since the end of hostilities, and to a ceasefire to which Azerbaijan is a signatory. However, by its own admission, it is still in a state of war with Armenia and Artsakh. “The war has not ended” declared its head of state.
To remind everyone, and to keep its threat alive – notably, to the mediators- Azerbaijan keeps the front line active, cease fire violations are constant occurrences. All kinds and calibers of artillery are used both at the front and occasionally against borderline villages in a war of attrition. It has a massive arsenal in full display that it uses indiscriminately…
Azerbaijan made a major and ill-advised attack on June 2016. Armenian authorities are still trying to assess the damage on the ground as well as the damage to the so called negotiation process. Azerbaijan’s foolhardy decision to attack resulted in impunity and cost the Armenian side over one hundred heroic young lives. Because of their sacrifice the attack was thwarted and failed.
Thankfully, this deadly miscalculated adventure caused the Armenian side to reassess and fortify our defenses, reformulate our strategy, and identify our vulnerabilities. However, Armenia failed to expose Azerbaijan for its violation of the ceasefire and it was never held accountable for its gross brutality against the civilian population. Azerbaijan knows what is illegal and what is criminal conduct. It never adheres to the humanitarian rules of war. Lately, the Armenian defense minister, Davit Tonoyan declared in New York, “As Minister of Defense, I declare that the formula ‘territories for peace’ will no longer exist and we will reformulate it as ‘new war – new territories,’ ” and that Armenia will boost its offensive capabilities.”
The response was swift from Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry. “We bring to the attention of the Armenian side that the armed forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan are among the most powerful armies of the world and are able to liberate the occupied territories of Azerbaijan in a short time.” This is in line with bellicose warmongering declarations made by Azerbaijan’s head of state at every occasion.
The Armenian Defense Minister’s declaration is significant in that it represents a clear demarcation from existing policy. He stressed that renewed attacks from Azerbaijan would result in more territorial loss, a major change from a purely defensive posture.
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It seems that there is a dichotomy in the ongoing accepted basic concept. The right to self-determination and territorial integrity cannot coexist in actuality. It is not a realistic concept. Nagorno-Karabakh was never part of Azerbaijan. They represent dramatically opposite realities that can never lead to a just resolution of the conflict. For the western world, it is a convenient evasion from taking an honorable position on behalf of self-determination which is a basic tenet of human rights.
In reality, this adopted mode of negotiations for the last twenty-seven years, has not brought us any closer to resolving the conflict. Artsakh is still not a recognized entity even though it has made major advances as a viable state, having its own army and democratic government institutions. Being part of the original cease fire agreement, it is still not a party to the negotiation process. However it is still isolated and does not have international legal status. The future does not bode well for peace for its inhabitants. Living under constant threat of massive bombardments or even annihilation is very real.
Azerbaijan’s multi-billion dollar acquisition of sophisticated military hardware from all sources: Russia, Israel, Turkey, France, Slovakia, being its major suppliers. Its buildup of a deadly military arsenal is still ongoing. The military cooperation and coordination with Turkey and Nakhichevan marked by periodic joint military exercises is aimed at destabilizing Armenia. Another coordinated invasion might be devastating for the people of Artsakh even if it is not successful.
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A fundamental change in strategy is in order. One can no longer rely on the negotiating process. It has not resulted in stopping the belligerence. It has not stopped the artillery from killing young Armenian soldiers on the front line. The mediators – in their diligence for equal parity- keep reminding “the sides” to respect the ceasefire. The snipers on the Azeri side are still at work. No monitoring mechanisms are allowed on the border…
One can easily presume that negotiations have failed miserably; that the future presents pitfalls for Armenian diplomacy; and the survival of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh depends on a new bolder approach. At this time, three forward looking, incremental steps have to be contemplated and enacted:
1. Armenia and Artsakh should launch a worldwide campaign against Turkey and Azerbaijan for their illegal blockade and isolation of Armenia and Artsakh. This constitutes a major impediment for their economies. It has had a devastating effect on their development. Upon the grand opening of the newly built civilian airport in Artsakh, Azerbaijan threatened to shoot down any civilian airplane using it. No worldwide condemnation of this flagrant disregard of civil aviation rules, and in contravention of major international humanitarian law. Thus far, the airport has not been in operation because of the seriousness of the threat.
Blockade is tantamount to an act of war. It is a belligerent act. It prevents the target states from outreach to the world. “There is also, as a result of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions, an obligation not to deprive the civilian population of the basic means of survival.”
2. Establish a formal strategic military pact between Artsakh and Armenia. Any attacks on Nagorno-Karabakh would be deemed an attack on Armenia. Countries aiding and abetting Azerbaijan would be on notice. This is long overdue and a necessary arrangement that would clear the way for a more productive and coordinated alliance between Armenia and Artsakh. At this time, this has become a military necessity. Never the less, it will definitely create a new geopolitical reality.
3. Armenia needs to be reunified with Artsakh, and thus create a “fait-accompli.” This will create a major blow to Azerbaijan’s belligerence and bravado. It will change the existing configuration. It may put Armenia under tremendous pressures. However the right timing and advance notification of friendly countries will alleviate the initial impact and improve the long-term prospects of the faith of Nagorno-Karabakh. There will be no more talk of “Land for Peace.” Artsakh did not belong to any sovereign state at the time the Soviet Union collapsed and its population overwhelmingly voted for independence at the time. Article 4 of the Fourth Geneva Convention stipulates that “persons protected by the convention are those who, at any given moment, and in any manner whatsoever, find themselves, in case of a conflict or occupation, in the hands of a party to the conflict or occupying power of which they are not nationals.”
It is not yet clear what the present government of Armenia is contemplating towards resolving the conflict. However one cannot have confidence that the present atmosphere of mistrust in the relations between Armenia and Artsakh is conducive to an approach that is mutually acceptable. There are accusations flying back and forth… It is imperative that a national consensus on the subject supersede any political divisions. The ultimate faith of our beloved Artsakh and that of Armenia is at stake.
I understand according to an international, European law, implemented by Minister Franco Armenien Balladur that no state has the right to impose a blockade on an enclave country, which Turkish and Azeris have been applying for decades and which receive a sophisticate armament by the powerful states, under the complicit gaze of international bodies
You are absolutely right. But right does not make might. Might makes right.
What is lost to the sword can only be recovered with the sword.
Great article. It’s about time to take Artsakh in and make it part of greater Armenia. I wonder why this hasn’t taken place all there’s years. What’s the idea of setting Artsakh as a seperate country anyway?
If Artsakh was part of Armenia, it being smaller, it would be dominated by the much larger Armenia. As an independent state, it would have a vote at the UN. Armenia and Artsakh would be a voting block at the UN, making deals. Even Russia has only one vote. Artsakh is doing good independent, does not need to be bullied by Armenia. Besides, Azerbaijan claims that Artsakh is part of it, than if Artsakh were to liberate Nakhichevan, than it would be an internal matter, and no reason for the world to get involved. Armenians are few, and have fewer friends. Therefore, the Armenians have to calculate every step and make it count as two.
Please. We were murdered as a race and no one says a word. The clear answer is UNITY: ONE Armenia Arstakh and diaspora. Its amazing how the Armenian craves to look good in the eyes of odars who can basically care less about any Armenians. Azerbaijan shoots daily and the OSCE doesn’t say a word to them directly but speaks in vague statements such as the need to adhere to the cease fire. USELESS NONSENSE. Maybe its our centuries of being under the hegemony of the worst sadistic criminal invading mongol predator Turk and their ugly dysfunctional oppression they bring anywhere they invade. WE NEED NOBODY. Enrich Uranium for starters. Create a small clandestine nuclear program. Israel has nuclear weapons and no one says a word. Armenia can too. Create Diaspora military units that can have tens of thousands of trained ready fighters in case of war. Further, every Armenian today needs to call the White House (202) 456-1111 and demand sanctions against TURKEY for buying the S-400 from Russia.. Lets help destroy the occupying Turkish economy. War with Azerbaijan, and yes Turkey from Nakichivan, is a matter of time. Be prepared and ready.
Noble ideas you have, however, who is going to do “all that?” You?
It is easy sitting at your home in America and give tons of juicy advice.
Why not go and settle in Armenia, and bring up your kids in Armenia?
We are Not a belligerent nation, we are Not aggressors either. But we will defend our small country against ANY aggression, whether it comes from the East or the West.
Just the other day I was at the US embassy in Yerevan, and I was saddened to see the LONG lines of Armenians wanting to emigrate to America. What good is it to have 9 million Armenians abroad, and 1.5 million left behind to protect Armenia against 90 million well-armed, well-fed vicious bloodthirsty Turks?
It is the time that Armenians abroad QUIT this hypocritical attitude that they have towards their less fortunate kin in Armenia.
Nuclear technology is Pase’. Old technology. Neutron technology is the way to go. It only kills people, and is relatively non poluting. Newtron bonb is the way to go.