Data: Turkey’s Threats of Retaliation Are Hollow

Trade analysis shows that, contrary to Ankara’s threats, Turkey expands trade with countries after they recognize the Armenian Genocide

WASHINGTON—International trade data illustrate an unmistakable trend of steadily increasing trade between Turkey and countries that have recognized the Armenian Genocide, despite Ankara’s highly vocal—frequently angry—threats to retaliate economically against nation’s that have formally condemned this crime against humanity, reported the Armenian National Committee of America.

The trade statistics, drawn from the Organization for Economic Development, show that the ten of the advanced countries that have recognized the Armenian Genocide have experienced growth in bilateral trade with Turkey.  At the high end of the range are Russia, which has witnessed a 912% increase in trade with Turkey since its 1995 recognition, and Greece (399% since 1996), Slovakia (298% since 2004), France (257% since 2001), Belgium (174% since 1998), and Canada (148% since 2004).

“Over the past several decades, Turkey has established a predictable pattern, in the weeks leading up to the consideration by other countries of the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, of threatening to fundamentally downgrade its ties with the government in question, including through the imposition of far-reaching economic sanctions,” said ANCA Executive Director Aram Hamparian.  “A review of publicly-available trade statistics demonstrates that Turkey, for all its bluster, also has an equally consistent pattern of quickly setting aside these threats and returning to a business as usual relationship with the countries that they were only recently publicly demonizing.”

Copies of these trade charts have been widely circulated to Congressional offices, agencies of the Federal government, and to officials representing a broad cross-section of the Washington, DC foreign policy community.